By evcharger
The Canadian federal government has unveiled a new electric vehicle (EV) mandate requiring that 100% of new passenger cars, SUVs, crossovers and light trucks sold by 2035 must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). This bold policy aims to accelerate EV adoption in Canada and drive progress towards the country’s ambitious climate change commitments.
This far-reaching policy will transform vehicle offerings in showrooms, provide planning certainty to automakers, support grid infrastructure upgrades, and put Canada firmly on the road to a zero-emission transportation future. The 2035 deadline also aligns with EV commitments from automakers and other countries, including the United States and the European Union.
The mandate sets annual sales requirements that ramp up gradually over time:
- 2026: At least 20% of vehicles sold must be ZEVs
- 2027: At least 23%
- 2028: At least 34%
- 2029: At least 43%
- 2030: At least 60%
- 2035: 100%
This policy will have wide-ranging implications for Canadian consumers, automakers, electricity grids, government budgets, greenhouse gas emissions, and more.
Consumer Implications
For consumers, the ZEV mandate aims to increase EV model availability and reduce wait times. Many Canadians interested in buying EVs have faced long wait lists of a year or more. The policy requires automakers to supply more EVs domestically, instead of exporting them to the large American or Chinese markets. This should shorten wait times and give Canadian consumers more choices.
However, there are some barriers. EVs have higher upfront costs than gas vehicles, even with existing government rebates. Added charging infrastructure is needed, especially in rural and remote regions. As the grid transitions to clean electricity, EV emissions benefits will grow.
Overall, the regulatory push makes it likelier that price parity will happen on schedule by 2030. This will make EVs accessible to more Canadians. Those holding onto gas vehicles can drive them as long as desired since the policy affects new sales only.
Automaker Implications
For automakers, the policy accelerates an inevitable transition while adding some flexibility. Those lagging on EV sales can purchase credits or invest in charging infrastructure to offset compliance. But make no mistake, all automakers must transform their offerings sold in Canada.
The auto industry raised concerns about consumer demand, charging infrastructure, grid capacity, and the feasibility of an accelerated timeline. However, many automakers already planned to go all-electric globally by 2030-2035 based on falling battery costs and growing demand. The regulatory certainty helps them invest confidently in ramping up EV production.
Canada also allows some extra time before penalties apply, recognizing the transition cannot happen overnight. Overall, automakers still face a tremendous shift in vehicle development, manufacturing, sales and service. The pace will be challenging but the destination is clear.
Electricity Grid Implications
For electricity grids, the influx of millions of EV chargers represents a sizeable new source of demand. However, EVs are projected to comprise only 9.5% of Canada’s total electricity use by 2050. Added capacity, storage, demand management and clean power sources can prevent issues.
Investment coordination between government and industry will be crucial to scale grid infrastructure in step with EV adoption. Regional differences also matter, with rural areas needing more attention to distribution systems and charging access compared to urban centres.
Overall, experts agree Canada’s clean electricity grids can support rising EV use through smart planning and upgrades. The new loads also provide grid operators valuable flexibility to shift demand and integrate renewables.
Emissions and Climate Implications
For emissions and climate, the ZEV mandate is a keystone policy in Canada’s plan to cut greenhouse gases by 40-45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Transportation causes about 25% of national emissions so accelerating EV adoption makes a major dent.
As clean electricity displaces high-emitting gasoline and diesel, EV emissions keep falling in parallel. This creates a positive feedback loop between EVs, zero-carbon grids and climate progress. Even accounting for EV manufacturing emissions, EVs are far cleaner over their lifetime.
The ZEV mandate also unlocks adjacent benefits like green jobs, cleaner cities, budget savings, energy security and more. Overall, it puts Canada firmly on the road towards a zero-emission transportation future.
Manufacturing & Jobs
The auto manufacturing sector is Canada’s largest exporter and uses over 125,000 workers. As the industry pivots to EVs, profound changes to vehicle design, production processes and supply chains will impact automaking jobs.
New EV-related manufacturing is emerging with recent battery plant announcements. But more traditional engine and transmission plants face declines without mitigation measures. Ensuring a “just transition” for auto workers through retraining programs and community support will be vital in the shift to EVs. Additionally, Canada’s EV mandates now diverge from those in the key US auto market.
Government Budget Implications
For government budgets, the ZEV mandate relies more on regulation than subsidies to drive change. However, Ottawa and the provinces may need to maintain or enhance EV rebates and tax credits in the short term to ease the consumer cost transition.
Governments also face new infrastructure costs to support adoption, including charging stations, grid upgrades, building code changes, EV battery recycling programs and workforce retraining. Targeted investments and partnerships with industry can optimize spending efficiency.
At the same time, rising EV use saves governments money over the long run. A large EV fleet lowers healthcare costs through reduced air pollution, enhances energy security by cutting oil imports, and strengthens the economy through innovation.
Opportunities
The 2035 mandate poses complex transitions for Canada, it also offers new economic opportunities and advantages.
GHG Reductions
As an emissions-intensive sector, phasing out gas vehicles presents a major climate win. EVs produce far fewer lifetime emissions than gas cars – even when accounting for electricity generation.
Federal models show the ZEV mandate could cut passenger vehicle emissions by as much as 17 megatonnes annually after 2035. However, it is a major step towards Canada’s Paris Agreement targets and net-zero by 2050 goal.
Clean Tech Leadership
The EV transition can nurture Canada’s burgeoning clean technology sector. Made-in-Canada solutions for batteries, charging platforms, electricity management and more can grow new export industries while improving environmental performance.
Recent battery plant investments also position Canada to be a global EV battery supplier. Centering sustainability in new EV value chains – through clean electricity use, responsible mineral sourcing and recycling – can further Canadian leadership.
Public Health
Beyond climate impacts, gas vehicles also degrade local air quality through particulate, nitrogen oxide and other tailpipe emissions. EVs produce no direct emissions, delivering huge public health benefits especially in cities.
Health Canada estimates existing vehicle pollution contributes to over 1,000 premature deaths nationally each year. The 2035 mandate can significantly improve respiratory health and reduce hospitalizations through cleaner urban air.
Key Enablers
Realizing benefits and navigating complexities from Canada’s ZEV mandate will require deliberate strategies and policies between industry and governments.
Purchase Incentives
Upfront EV cost remains a key adoption barrier for mainstream consumers. Sustaining purchase incentives like rebates and tax credits can encourage more Canadians to choose EVs during the transition. Targeted incentives for low-income buyers are also important for equity.
Charging Infrastructure
A great national charging network will be critical, driven through public-private coordination and funding support. Infrastructure build-outs must align with EV sales targets and focus on expanding rural access.
Electric Grid Planning
Careful provincial electricity planning and utility coordination will enable cost-effective EV integration. Key tools include integrated resource plans, dynamic rate structures, smart charging programs and grid modernization investments.
Conclusion
Canada’s electric vehicle sales mandate for 2035 marks a historic turning point for sustainable transportation nationwide. By setting clear requirements, it provides regulatory certainty to consumers and industry alike while ensuring EVs become a mainstream option sooner.
Achieving this vision still requires work across governments, automakers, electricity utilities and civil society to align ambitions with practical solutions. Special attention should go towards equitable access, affordability and charging infrastructure.
With continued collaboration, Canada is primed to reap the environmental and economic rewards of electric mobility for decades to come. The 2035 mandate sets the course – now the journey begins.
FAQs
Q: How soon will all vehicles be EVs?
A: The sales mandate takes full effect in 2035, meaning all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in Canada must be zero-emission. However, gas-powered vehicles can still be driven after 2035. Turnover of the entire fleet will realistically take 15-20 years.
Q: What if there aren’t enough EV chargers?
A: The federal government projects EV chargers will grow from about 13,000 now to 100,000 by 2030. More chargers near highways, apartments and condos are needed. Automakers can also earn credits by investing in charging infrastructure to help address gaps.
Q: Won’t this policy force people into EVs?
A: No, the mandate is focused on new vehicles entering the market. It aims to ensure EVs are available at dealerships for those who want them. No one has to give up their gas vehicle. Used EV sales may also increase as a lower-cost option.
Q: Is this timeline realistic for automakers?
A: Reaching 100% ZEV sales by 2035 is certainly ambitious. However, many automakers have already committed to exclusively EV production globally between 2030-2035 due to falling battery prices. The long phase-in to Canada’s mandate gives them time to retool factories and transform product lines.
Q: What about people in rural areas or the North?
Access to charging remains a valid concern in remote regions. Governments must ensure rural charging infrastructure keeps pace with rural EV sales. Cold temperature performance has improved dramatically while ranges of 400+ km help. Specialized solutions for remote regions also will arise.
